2016 to 2018. Modelling the Predictive Macro-impacts of International Financial Conditions: The Case of China
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“Modelling the Predictive Macro-impacts of International Financial Conditions” was a research project led by Professor Qin Duo, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London and fully funded by the Foundation. This project provided the first systematic analysis of the predictive impacts of international financial conditions for the purpose of enhancing the macroeconomic forecasting capacity of China’s economic performance. Specifically, the project developed a practical procedure for constructing aggregate international financial conditions indices (IFCI), which are shown to have: (a) predictive macro-impacts on a number of key macroeconomic variables; and (b) comparable properties to aggregate indices widely used outside the academic circle, such as the consumer price index. After the model was constructed, the workshop on “Modelling the Predictive Macro-impacts of International Financial Conditions” was jointly held by Professor Qin’s team and the Research Bureau of People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in August 2018 in Beijing; the workshop was sponsored and funded by the Cairncross Foundation. In total, 25 invited participants attended the workshop who were from the headquarters and branches of PBOC and other financial institutions.